Pages

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Two months have passed - another %2 profit

My fully automated system has been running for two months now on 10 pairs (the previous version run on 6 pairs only) and seems like it has a rate of 2% per month which was the minimum rate I predicted.
you can see below the graph of the last two months, The balance growing is linear ,the draw-down max was  5.63% and the leverage max 3.2.
Total profit is  4.3%.
This graph is generated by my system Hadar(build 1.1.2.7) and it shows the balance/equity/lots for every hour:

The graph below is generated by MetaTrader 4(build 432):



As you can see the MetaTrader 4 Graph Drawdown is much smaller 0.78% instead of 5.63% and that is because it Relies only on positions closing time and not every hour.
If you have a Metatrader 4 account and you want to see the Real Drawdown just email me the account details and I will give you the one hour graph of your account.(every account has a read only password that you can change)

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

How to compare Forex Robots or Automated Trading Services

Many Forex companies offer today an automated trading robot, the big question is how can you decide which one is the best ? how much past performance numbers are worth ?
I will try to give only a partial answer but it should cover 90% of the robots and traders that declare they have a winning algorithm or robot.
I will be referring here only to Meta-Trader 4 and Forex markets and for all use cases I will assume the account that is used has 100,000$ ,leverage of 1:100 on EURUSD price 1.25592.

  • Leverage - Most of the robots I checked failed on that, they suddenly open those big positions which in the good case cover the small positions or in a bad case lose more money, leverage of positions in one currency pairs should not be more then 5 and even that exposes the robot to a big lose.
here is an example:
If a robot trading EURUSD, current price is 1.25592 and it opened a "buy" position with 10 lots, A market move of 5% to 1.193124 will cost 62.79% of the account which in our case is 62790$.
Lets assume now that the Robot is using Stop-loss of 1% then in that case it will only need to be wrong 5 times in a row and you get again the same lose.
Good robot should have a very low average of lots open.

  • Drawdown -  Usually with big leverage you will also see big drawdown, obviously smaller drawdown is better, but the problem is to know what is the real drawdown which that robot had in the past, since the Meta-Trader 4 graph shows you only closed positions you don't know if those positions had a bigger draw-down, in my previous blog, you can see there an example of how mt4 graph hide the real draw-down.
  • Can Work At Any Time - If the robot is declared to work only in special market conditions then it is worthless since verifying a market condition is a hard thing to accomplish and you can't tell if the special market condition is over already or just starting, black swan can happen at any time, so your algo must be ready for that in all time, even if it works only in predefined hours or predefined conditions.
  • Tested - A Robot should run or be tested at least  5 years back and you should compare those results, you should check how it is performing on bad years like 2008 or 2003 or how it performed in special dates like 9.11.
  • Profit - Usually the rate that a robot can make money is the rate it can lose money so if a robot can make 10% a day that means that it can lose 10% a day or more, so don't be tempted to choose a Robot that makes 100% per month cause that will probably be the time it will take you to lose all your money.
This basic points are also true for any trader not just automatic if you are using large positions or have a big drawdown or you think you know "how the market is behaving" don't trade cause your luck will end eventually.
Remember that most of the traders in Forex lose their money and when someone finds a way that works he will not publish it or sell it otherwise we would have seen more people wining.