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Saturday, October 12, 2013

6 month have past, two demo's are running

I have been busy working on other project while the system was running now by itself for 6 month.
main loses where from AUDCAD but still we can see that the demo's are working good.
without AUDCAD the result would have been exactly as predicted, and we see that even that AUDCAD moved 30% we only reached 3.5% drawdown and managed to close it.

You can view the details here Demo 2.2.0.5 :
or view the graphs below:




Demo 2.3.0.5
 



Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Version 2.3

Finally, I finished the 3:1 version.
This version is unique since for the first time the Algo closes loses, Until now the algo only closed positions when it reached profit, now it can also close on loses and this is not a simple stop loss.
the algo decides when it made a bad decision and closes the losing positions, this is mainly done to prevent much bigger loses, it can even decide to close profiting positions just to get out of a danger that it thinks coming.
so here are the latest test results, you can see in the trading graphs that the balance is not going all-ways up since we now close loses.






9 Pairs are currently supported.
Each Pair makes 1% profit on average and 1% drawdown on average.
Max drawdown for one pair in the last 3 years is 3.4%
Max drawdown for last 3 years is 3.99%
Max leverage for last 6 years is 2.2
 


Friday, February 15, 2013

New version Results - Min Ratio of 3:1 per year

When I started my System did 10:8 profit to draw down with a leverage of 10 max, after 3 years my system reached 3:1 ratio with leverage max of 2, below you can see my new version test results, and its been running for a month already in live demo you can watch it in Here.
I take into account only 3 years back and if you look only two years the profit is even 5:1








SymbolProfitProfit percentDrawDownDrawDown percentStartDateEndDateLotsMaxLotsAVGDurationMaxDurationAVGParalelMaxParalelAvgSpreadTotal TradesRun Date
AUDCAD 2293.37 2.29337 2924.01 2.92401 2011-05-01 00:00:00 2012-05-01 00:00:00 0.9 0.11953125 115.040972222 11.823046875 7 3.0 4.9 64 2013-02-14 18:08:16
EURGBP 1438.86 1.43886 1774.74 1.77474 2011-05-01 00:00:00 2012-05-01 00:00:00 1.35 0.140425531915 70.9326388889 4.29986702128 9 3.0 4.3 47 2013-02-14 18:11:56
AUDCAD 3306.39 3.30639 1738.89 1.73889 2010-05-01 00:00:00 2011-08-09 00:00:00 0.45 0.111111111111 63.5958333333 3.38090706447 3 2.0 4.9 81 2013-02-14 18:08:36
GBPUSD 2547.03 2.54703 3505.45 3.50545 2007-05-01 00:00:00 2008-05-01 00:00:00 0.52 0.0720863309353 54.9375 2.96618205436 4 2.0 4.1 139 2013-02-14 18:21:19
CHFJPY 2050.52 2.05052 3861.60 3.8616 2008-05-01 00:00:00 2009-05-01 00:00:00 0.75 0.131578947368 42.3548611111 3.22085160819 7 2.0 5.2 114 2013-02-14 18:11:08
GBPUSD 1044.75 1.04475 2849.53 2.84953 2009-05-01 00:00:00 2010-05-01 00:00:00 0.52 0.0768862275449 40.2694444444 2.03339570858 5 2.0 4.1 167 2013-02-14 18:20:24
GBPUSD 4055.66 4.05566 1486.34 1.48634 2010-05-01 00:00:00 2011-08-09 00:00:00 0.39 0.0729381443299 35.3847222222 2.04784865407 3 2.0 4.1 194 2013-02-14 18:20:01
USDCAD -456.79 -0.45679 2783.30 2.7833 2007-05-01 00:00:00 2008-05-01 00:00:00 0.9 0.176517857143 27.9944444444 1.59792286706 3 2.0 4.4 112 2013-02-14 18:23:12
GBPCAD 6444.89 6.44489 3913.68 3.91368 2008-05-01 00:00:00 2009-05-01 00:00:00 0.6 0.0230020703934 25.3097222222 1.22510783299 21 3.0 6.9 966 2013-02-14 18:16:48
GBPUSD 2458.11 2.45811 974.14 0.97414 2011-05-01 00:00:00 2012-05-01 00:00:00 0.52 0.0601948051948 25.2833333333 1.62023358586 4 2.0 4.1 154 2013-02-14 18:19:29
GBPCAD 2319.69 2.31969 2439.73 2.43973 2009-05-01 00:00:00 2010-05-01 00:00:00 0.49 0.0199681020734 22.6298611111 1.66536970583 17 3.0 6.9 627 2013-02-14 18:16:25
EURGBP 2524.08 2.52408 2534.15 2.53415 2009-05-01 00:00:00 2010-05-01 00:00:00 0.9 0.1375 20.9548611111 2.9525462963 6 3.0 4.3 84 2013-02-14 18:12:42
GBPCAD 2446.90 2.4469 2194.10 2.1941 2010-05-01 00:00:00 2011-08-09 00:00:00 0.36 0.0176765799257 20.9166666667 1.64333307518 15 3.0 6.9 538 2013-02-14 18:16:04
USDCAD 2937.14 2.93714 2874.47 2.87447 2011-05-01 00:00:00 2012-05-01 00:00:00 1.2 0.192923076923 19.6430555556 1.77911324786 5 3.0 4.4 130 2013-02-14 18:21:41
EURGBP 3050.59 3.05059 3863.01 3.86301 2008-05-01 00:00:00 2009-05-01 00:00:00 0.75 0.133333333333 19.4326388889 1.83365912209 5 2.0 4.3 81 2013-02-14 18:13:05
USDCAD 1273.17 1.27317 2111.41 2.11141 2009-05-01 00:00:00 2010-05-01 00:00:00 0.9 0.213870967742 18.2902777778 1.2095766129 3 3.0 4.4 124 2013-02-14 18:22:25
GBPCAD 1182.77 1.18277 483.01 0.48301 2011-05-01 00:00:00 2012-05-01 00:00:00 0.15 0.0138144329897 17.91875 0.93455517373 5 2.0 6.9 291 2013-02-14 18:15:42
EURGBP 734.78 0.73478 1343.81 1.34381 2007-05-01 00:00:00 2008-05-01 00:00:00 0.6 0.138 16.0805555556 4.49244444444 4 2.0 4.3 25 2013-02-14 18:13:27
GBPCAD 1561.20 1.5612 1139.81 1.13981 2007-05-01 00:00:00 2008-05-01 00:00:00 0.36 0.018064516129 15.9381944444 1.07577060932 16 3.0 6.9 310 2013-02-14 18:17:11
EURUSD 2434.68 2.43468 2143.44 2.14344 2011-05-01 00:00:00 2012-05-01 00:00:00 0.6 0.180392156863 15.0597222222 1.57689270153 3 2.0 3.6 51 2013-02-14 18:13:50
USDCAD 1028.46 1.02846 1936.09 1.93609 2008-05-01 00:00:00 2009-05-01 00:00:00 0.9 0.214285714286 14.6395833333 0.943891723356 4 2.0 4.4 147 2013-02-14 18:22:48
EURUSD -582.06 -0.58206 1662.77 1.66277 2007-05-01 00:00:00 2008-05-01 00:00:00 0.6 0.161951219512 11.4458333333 1.98993902439 3 3.0 3.6 41 2013-02-14 18:15:20
GBPUSD 1578.53 1.57853 4821.08 4.82108 2008-05-01 00:00:00 2009-05-01 00:00:00 0.39 0.0824761904762 9.04305555556 0.874325396825 3 2.0 4.1 210 2013-02-14 18:20:56
GBPJPY 2173.69 2.17369 6046.24 6.04624 2007-05-01 00:00:00 2008-05-01 00:00:00 0.8 0.243902439024 8.59375 0.75243902439 2 2.0 5.7 41 2013-02-14 18:19:06
EURUSD 603.51 0.60351 2621.97 2.62197 2008-05-01 00:00:00 2009-05-01 00:00:00 0.6 0.187575757576 8.55416666667 1.12192760943 3 2.0 3.6 66 2013-02-14 18:14:58
GBPJPY 3175.38 3.17538 1911.56 1.91156 2009-05-01 00:00:00 2010-05-01 00:00:00 1.2 0.241176470588 8.24583333333 0.393903186275 3 2.0 5.7 68 2013-02-14 18:18:18
USDCAD 2486.78 2.48678 1211.04 1.21104 2010-05-01 00:00:00 2011-08-09 00:00:00 0.9 0.18 8.19722222222 0.72945441989 3 2.0 4.4 181 2013-02-14 18:22:03
AUDCAD 2027.45 2.02745 596.54 0.59654 2009-05-01 00:00:00 2010-05-01 00:00:00 0.45 0.10985915493 7.53472222222 0.930379499218 3 2.0 4.9 71 2013-02-14 18:08:57
EURUSD 2298.25 2.29825 918.92 0.91892 2010-05-01 00:00:00 2011-08-09 00:00:00 0.4 0.187532467532 6.41944444444 1.0593524531 2 2.0 3.6 77 2013-02-14 18:14:11
EURGBP 3154.37 3.15437 1377.34 1.37734 2010-05-01 00:00:00 2011-08-09 00:00:00 1.2 0.132110091743 5.9125 0.950172018349 8 2.0 4.3 109 2013-02-14 18:12:19
EURUSD 2295.12 2.29512 502.92 0.50292 2009-05-01 00:00:00 2010-05-01 00:00:00 0.4 0.16 5.41111111111 0.573295454545 2 2.0 3.6 55 2013-02-14 18:14:34
AUDCAD 704.72 0.70472 721.97 0.72197 2007-05-01 00:00:00 2008-05-01 00:00:00 0.45 0.104210526316 5.09722222222 0.762463450292 3 2.0 4.9 76 2013-02-14 18:09:40
CHFJPY 250.39 0.25039 509.82 0.50982 2007-05-01 00:00:00 2008-05-01 00:00:00 0.3 0.12 4.39513888889 0.419583333333 2 2.0 5.2 15 2013-02-14 18:11:32
GBPJPY 4587.03 4.58703 3256.30 3.2563 2008-05-01 00:00:00 2009-05-01 00:00:00 0.8 0.311111111111 4.04930555556 0.319268077601 2 2.0 5.7 63 2013-02-14 18:18:42
AUDCAD 1283.59 1.28359 908.10 0.9081 2008-05-01 00:00:00 2009-05-01 00:00:00 0.3 0.119888888889 3.72638888889 0.733487654321 2 2.0 4.9 90 2013-02-14 18:09:19
CHFJPY 563.34 0.56334 545.21 0.54521 2009-05-01 00:00:00 2010-05-01 00:00:00 0.3 0.107692307692 3.33472222222 0.487749287749 2 2.0 5.2 39 2013-02-14 18:10:46
GBPJPY 1873.36 1.87336 1151.44 1.15144 2010-05-01 00:00:00 2011-08-09 00:00:00 1.6 0.15625 3.1625 0.186545138889 4 2.0 5.7 64 2013-02-14 18:17:56
GBPJPY 1525.41 1.52541 1151.33 1.15133 2011-05-01 00:00:00 2012-05-01 00:00:00 1.6 0.14 3.1625 0.255011574074 4 3.0 5.7 60 2013-02-14 18:17:34
CHFJPY 788.62 0.78862 480.67 0.48067 2010-05-01 00:00:00 2011-08-09 00:00:00 0.3 0.119387755102 1.64791666667 0.105782312925 2 2.0 5.2 49 2013-02-14 18:10:24
CHFJPY 965.02 0.96502 480.43 0.48043 2011-05-01 00:00:00 2012-05-01 00:00:00 0.3 0.123214285714 1.64791666667 0.128831845238 2 2.0 5.2 56 2013-02-14 18:10:02
0 78428.75 , 1960.72 78.43 , 1.96 79750.36 , 1993.76 79.75 , 1.99

1.60 0.13131 115.04 1.67741 21.00 2.27500 4.88750 5877.00




This results were on 8 pairs and I have another two on the way USDJPY and NZDJPY.



Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Moving to 5 minute charts

In preparation of a new version I decided to move to 5 minute charts instead of One minute, my reasons were:
1 - Testing is faster and I can run on  a longer period in one test.
2 - Optimization faster.
3 - More data on the chart view.
4 - Less memory is used by the terminal. (need terminal restart once three months instead of two weeks).

New version also include:
1 - Close on high volatility - when in a losing position the market moves too fast so we close the position in lose.
2 - ATR filter - open positions only on predefined ATR values.
3 - Long trends - Secret parameter for long trends, filter light signals when trend is strong.


All those reasons enabled me to reach a version of 5:1 (profit/draw down) on 5 years Back testing.
this version will probably be out only a month from now.

The current version demo is still running, it did in two months 0.63% when the expected profit is 3% per year(0.25%) per month. draw down was 0.125% max.




Wednesday, January 9, 2013

2012 - Summary

Another Year ended  and we can sum up 2012:
The Algo ran 4 months and did 2% every month until my broker servers started to disconnect me and cause me to lose for 2 months, I stopped the algo after realizing that my broker servers are disconnecting.
I am now searching for a new broker, but till then I am running demo's on Alpari and Pepperstone brokers.


My lessons learned for 2012 are:
1 - Its better to use limits when opening a new position when spread is high.
2 - Less positions is better, better to limit your exposure to market volatility.
3 - Don't trust your broker server, always check it is connected, servers get overloaded and disconnect you at critical times.
After Integrating those lessons into my Algo, I reached a three to one ratio of profit/drawdown.
The new version started running and I will update when I will have more news.


Friday, November 30, 2012

New Version 2.0.0.0 Test Results And Graphs

I finally finished the new version 2.0 and tests results for last 3 years are done.
all values are from 2010.1.1 to 2012.11.1:
Profit: 107.6%
Drawdown: 9.3%
Max leverage: 6.57
Avg leverage: 0.732953595174
Sharp ratio: 1.89336547786

Max Drawdown per symbol is very low 6% only

Test Results per Symbol:


 All Symbols combined graph:

Drawdown combined with each symbol with a different color.

 This version has been running already for 3 weeks on a demo account, I will soon move it to a real account.
anyone interested in detailed reports just write a comment and I will reply.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

New Version on the way 2.0.0.0

I am working on the a new version which should be much more attracting to clients with 1% per week and drawdown of 10% total.
I haven't recover yet from FXCM damages and My System is currently at 10% drawdown but I put my system on closing state so no new positions are opened and when all positions will close I will move to some other Broker.
I already started running demo test on my new version and I hope next week I will have graphs to show.